无知无畏::[动向|Current]

刚刚做了Presentation回来，着正装跑去吃一碗鸭面， 然而又是正常不过的. 我所要不过是每日下来静静一顿饭. 耳闻禽流感似要袭来, 而我每日仍执著进食鸡鸭,无知无畏.
Presentation的主题就是为大家讲解一篇paper：
《Acounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns》
by Richard Frankel and Charles M. C. Lee,
Te download information can be found at the following links:
Link1
The JPMorgan source:
Link2

无知无畏评语如下：
Frankel and Lee firstly estimate firms fundamental values
(V) using I/B/E/S concensus forecasts and a residual
income model. They find that V is highly correlated
with stock price, and that the V/P ratio is a good
predictor over other conventional predictor such as B/P
and firm size( ME), especially over longer terms. They
state that this effect is not explained by a firm's market
beta, B/P ratio, or total market capitalization (size), by
sort each against other. They also find evidence that
errors in consensus analysts forecasts are predictable, namely,
it has correlation with several other factors, and the effect is more
significant for Ltg( long term growth) and OP (analysts' optimism)
and these prediction errors can be exploited by incorporating
the error with V/P, where the combined trading strategy of V/P
and Error prediciton can earn 3 years return as high as 45.5% .
They conclude that the evidence suggests that firm’s value
estimates may well provide a better forecast ability than simply
using ratios, and that prices converge to value estimates
gradually over greater than 12 month horizons. They
also state that the predictability of long-term forecast
errors in consensus forecasts is consistent with a long
term mispricing hypothesis. Finally, the authors also
acknowledge that the results may demonstrate yet
another proxy for cross-sectional risk differences, but
state that it's also unlikely to reconcile with several risk
context. So as later evidence from the industry side,
even proved in the paper that V/P may be another
reliable predictor, the usage of V/P is still not popular
among the analysts, the possible reason for it may be the
explanatory power V/P has over stock price is not from
the risk perspective, rather than mispricing perspective.
It means V/P doesn't impound enough information about
the stock price, and so is its potenital volatility, which is
also known as the risk. However, it does capture the
information from mispricing of stocks, so it can also
generate higher returns in long-term because of late
realization of bias and errorsin the evaluation model,
but it may be favored in industry, as analysts actually
adjust their views and evaluations over time.

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第 1 楼：

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第 2 楼：

为什么是英文的，看不懂呢？